Shrinking Eastern Europe

Only a few countries in CEE can count on rising population numbers. The emigration of their workforce to Western Europe, declining birth rates and no immigration are the main causes of this development.

Only Albania, Macedonia, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Slovakia can expect a slight rise in population numbers until 2020. All other CEE countries will have to deal with population decreases between -6,9% in the Ukraine and -0,4% in Poland. The most dramatic development will be seen in countries with an already small population like Bulgaria, Serbia and the Baltic States. Numbers in Bulgaria are expected to drop from 7,6 to 7,2 million until 2020, in Serbia the population will shrink from 7,3 to 7 million and in Lithuania the population will drop from 2,3 to 2,2 million. Before 1990 Bulgaria had a population of 9 million.

Considering the countries that belong to the south-eastern part of Europe – Turkey, Cyprus, Greece – rising population numbers are expected. With a plus of 18% in Cyprus and 13% in Turkey these countries show the highest growth rates.

The question how the demographic development will change the economy and the quality of life for people is of concern in countries the world over. Immigration can only cover part oft he losses by low birth rates and overaging of the population. However – and this is ture especially for those European countries which have no immigration whatsoever – investing in education is critical. A well educated workforce that is working longer towards retirement grows more important regarding the low numbers of people in economically active age groups.