RegioData Shopping Climate Index CEE 02/2010: Slight Consumption Rebound

For the first time in the past two years the Shopping Climate Index CEE has improved considerably compared to the previous quarter. While the index in the past quarter was at around 64 points (100 = long term standard value), the index reached 75 points in the second quarter of 2010.

In spite of the improved index the shopping climate remains rather cloudy. The standard value of 100 has not been reached yet in the CEE region. The Czech Republic (91,9) and Poland (88,8) – excepting Austria with 100,8 – have the highest index points. According to the latest figures most of the countries have improved their values in the past months. The worst climate occurred in Greece and Serbia. Whilst in Greece the government ordered austerity package will have an impact also on the consumption climate, in Serbia the negative economical indicators and the strong decline of the retail turnovers are responsible for the bad shopping climate.

The problem childrenin the past months – Bosnia, Baltic states and the Ukraine – have improved their indices, although only slightly. Reaching a normal value will take some years in these countries. Very good values have been registered for Albania. The crisis, which hit countries like Romania, the Baltic states and the Ukraine strongly and had negative effects also on the shopping climate, did not hit Albania so severly.

The current indicators and prospects give hope to optimistic perspectives for the shopping climate in the CEE and SEE region. It is although to be considered that the speed of improvement will differ from country to country and for some countries there can be expected a backlash due to possible state interventions (austerity packages, tax increases, etc.).