Economic crisis in the East: The higher the rise...

The current economic crisis has spread wave-like by starting at the epicenter in the USA the wave first caught the large highly developed eocnomies in Western Europe. United Kingdom, Germany, Spain and France. Later it spread to the Eastern european countries that already were in difficulties (Hungary) or had had significant growth in the years before, first of all the Baltic states. For this year GDP is forecasted to drop up to 20%, however also the growth rates in the preceding years were about 8-12% each year. This dramatic downturns – the retail trade is even more affected – suggest that these countries have been thrown back for about 3 years.

A similar development, but not that severe, can be seen in the Ukraine and even more weakened in Romania or Turkey. Currently the most moderate economic downturn is reported for those countries that faced rather low growth rates in the preceding years; either due to the fact that the boom had not reached these countries (e.g. Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania) or because the economy had already been well developed and stable (Slovenia, Czech Republic, Greece).

The model student in mastering the crisis however is Poland: a large domestic market and a relatively low dependece on exports provided for a small economic growth even during the crisis.